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Report To: |
Bay of Plenty Mayoral Forum |
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Meeting Date: |
11 August 2023 |
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Report Writer: |
Jane Palmer, Senior Planner Climate Change and Nic Newman, Climate Change Programme Manager |
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Report Authoriser: |
Fiona McTavish, Chief Executive |
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Purpose: |
To provide an overview of current and planned work on climate risk and adaptation planning in the Bay of Plenty |
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Bay of Plenty Climate Risk Assessment next steps update
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Executive Summary The Bay of Plenty Regional Climate Change Risk Assessment was presented to the 21 April Mayoral Forum and publicly released following the meeting. The risk assessment provides a regional overview of current and future climate risks in order to identify and highlight areas where a focused effort is needed to manage these risks, by all parties. The outputs from this assessment establish a common baseline for the region and are available for all to use to raise community awareness of risk and support subsequent local risk assessments. Since the last Mayoral Forum, the Technical Working Group, established through the risk assessment project, has collaborated on this report to provide the Mayoral Forum with an overview of the current and planned work across local government in the region, along with a summary of known sector responses to climate risk. Each council is at a different stage of the journey, with differing resourcing, capacity and capabilities. The regional risk assessment provides a robust common foundation for all councils to progress work in this area and enables opportunities for collaboration and cross-council support to be identified. The Working Group will continue to keep the Mayoral Forum informed of progress to ensure a joined up local government response around responses to climate risks and adaptation planning, aligned with forthcoming national direction. The Working Group seeks the support of the Mayoral Forum for this ongoing work and their acknowledgement of the collaborative value of this Group. |
That the Bay of Plenty Mayoral Forum:
1 Receives the report, Bay of Plenty Climate Risk Assessment next steps update.
Following the presentation and public release of the Bay of Plenty Regional Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) at the 21 April Mayoral Forum, the risk assessment Technical Working Group has been working on progressing the next steps, as directed by the Forum Members.
The purpose of the regional risk assessment is to provide a regional overview of current and future climate risks to inform adaptation planning at a range of scales and by a range of parties and to support any further assessments at a district or local scale.
The first step was for the respective councils to report back to the Mayoral Forum on using the risk assessment outputs and intended next steps at a local level. The flow of information from the regional overview of climate risk to more detailed local and sector level assessments and adaptation planning is illustrated in Figure 1 below (noting that there are also many feedback loops between the various levels that have not been included in the diagram in the interests of simplicity).
Figure 1: High-level overview of information flows for climate risk assessments and responses
This report is structured around this flow of information, providing an overview of the current and planned work across local government, along with a summary of known sector responses to climate risk. The report has been prepared jointly with input from staff from each council, co-ordinated by the relevant staff representative on the Technical Working Group.
We understand that this work will ensure we are well aligned with forthcoming national direction.
2. Local government responses
Currently each council is at a different stage of the journey, with differing resourcing, capacity and capabilities across the region. The regional risk assessment provides a robust common foundation for all councils to progress work in this area and enables opportunities for collaboration and cross-council support to be identified. The Technical Working Group established through the risk assessment project will be a key mechanism for supporting a joined-up response around climate risks. This group has a solid knowledge base, strong connections and relationships, with the unique involvement of the health sector which has been beneficial to all involved.
The following sections summarise the main areas of focus for each council, with Table 2 in Appendix 1 providing more detail on the work completed, underway and planned in relation to council infrastructure, local risk and vulnerability assessments and community adaptation planning. It may be helpful to refer to the district summaries contained in Volume 2 of the regional risk assessment to provide the overall context for each district.
2.1 Tauranga City Council
To date, Tauranga City Council’s focus has been on ensuring resilient infrastructure and urban planning. The Council is finalising its first Climate Action and Investment Plan, which will go to Commissioners for adoption in August 2023. This will be a proactive response plan to the identified impacts of climate change, including a set of resilience goals supported by a roadmap of actions put forward within the Council’s Long-term Plan 2024-2034.
In the near term, the aim is to continue to build resilience in Council assets and to develop a localised climate change risk and vulnerability assessment which will inform future community adaptation planning. A Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Planning (DAPP) framework for flood mitigation is being developed as a pilot in the Mount North area.
2.2 Western Bay District Council
The key piece of work for the Western Bay of Plenty related to the regional climate change risk assessment is building an understanding of the community’s knowledge of natural hazards exposure and risk. This work has been initiated through the inclusion of targeted questions in the LTP consultation survey.
This will allow communication and engagement on the possible future risks of climate change and the available adaptation options to be targeted to better meet the needs of each community. It is expected that partnering with key community organisations and groups will be essential for improving overall community awareness and normalising conversations around risk mitigation and adaptation.
2.3 Rotorua Lakes Council
Currently lake water levels in the Rotorua District are close to 1970’s levels, generating issues such as localised flooding, raised groundwater levels, lake margin erosion, undermining of embankments and road foundations, increased infiltration into the wastewater network and increased flood risk due to higher tail water (at river mouths and upstream of elevated lake levels).
A risk assessment to the wellbeing of the lakes communities and a possible adaptation feasibility study, led by a joint working party comprising Rotorua Lakes Council, Bay of Plenty Regional Council, Te Arawa Lakes Trust and relevant stakeholders has been proposed by the Rotorua Te Arawa Lakes Strategy Group. This working party will investigate various workstreams and possible interventions in the short, medium and longer term with the objective of better managing risk associated with climate change forecasts, including potential lake control options, improved urban stormwater management, streams capacity and associated costs.
2.4 Whakatāne District Council
Climate change adaptation requires understanding of the natural hazards and the risk they pose to communities now and in the future. The emphasis has been to update natural hazard assessments with the latest available climate change forecasts. This information will underpin discrete plan changes to the Whakatāne District Plan. Each plan change will introduce new and revised natural hazard risk zones and make approved risk reduction proposals easier to implement. The information, together with the regional climate change risk assessment, will also inform a Whakatāne District Climate Change Risk Assessment which is at the planning stage.
2.5 Ōpōtiki District Council
Ōpotiki District Council is in the process of carrying out work to understand how policy requirements relate to the organisation, the district and the community. This is being done alongside understanding the regional risk assessment with the aim of creating a district level understanding of key risks and hazards, and creating an action plan the organisation can use and move forward from. From an Ōpōtiki District perspective, key items of focus will be risk to existing major infrastructure and ensuring resilience of key infrastructure along the coastline.
2.6 Kawerau District Council
High water table drainage on council and private land is causing damage to roading infrastructure and properties. Specific areas have additional drainage being installed and other areas are being considered. There is a lack of funding and resources to develop and install solutions.
High water table effects on drinking water supply are causing high mineral content in some water sources.
2.7 Bay of Plenty Regional Council
Given the difference in regional council responsibilities compared to territorial authorities, the relevant work underway at the Bay of Plenty Regional Council has been detailed separately in Table 3 in Appendix 1.
Work underway at BOPRC covers a range of sectors. The natural hazards programme continues to provide a strong evidence base via the BayHazards natural hazards viewer; this platform provides more granular information around risks at a district and community level which can inform local risk assessments and adaptation planning. In relation to flood protection, the River Scheme Sustainability Project is considering how to manage flood risk under a changing climate over a 100 year time horizon.
Through the Integrated Catchments programme, BOPRC is working with landowners to build the resilience of terrestrial, coastal & marine, freshwater ecosystems in the face of a changing climate. This work ranges from mapping the potential for land reclamation and saltmarsh restoration, best practice drain management, supporting land retirement and mitigating the impact of the increasing range and number of invasive species.
At a regional level, BOPRC initiated and funded the regional risk assessment project and continues to co-ordinate and support the risk assessment Technical Working Group. At the local level, a key initiative is the Community Led Adaptation Fund which provides funding to enable flax roots climate change adaptation planning directly by communities, at their scale. A number of projects are underway or completed and these are referenced for each district in Table 2.
3. Sector responses
Table 1 captures the known sector responses to climate risk currently underway. BOPRC will continue to engage with sector partners to build a more comprehensive picture of the work being done across the region. A key link will be through Bay of Connections, which has a current workstream to work with industry sectors on the resilience challenges outlined in the regional risk assessment to identify viable solutions.
Table 1 Sector responses to climate risk
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Organisation |
Current work underway |
CCRA sector category |
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Te Whatu Ora Health New Zealand |
Te Whatu Ora Health New Zealand Bay of Plenty Hauora a Toi has completed its own risk assessment. Nationally, Te Whatu Ora has conducted a risk assessment on its key infrastructure. The sector is now working to create climate change scenarios in line with the XRB climate standards which will help to inform the next stages of the risk assessment and adaptation planning process. Te Whatu Ora is also taking the lead in the creation of Climate Health Action Plans, as an action in the National Adaptation Plan. Te Whatu Ora looks forward to working with local government on this project to ensure healthy, well and resilient communities. |
Health |
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Tauranga & Rotorua Airports |
At a national level, the three main airports (Auckland, Wellington & Christchurch) are developing common airport-sector climate risk scenarios (physical and transition risks) for the purposes of the mandatory climate risk disclosure requirements. The sector is working towards an adaptation plan, with individual airports planning for both weather emergencies and the shift to a decarbonized aviation system; Tauranga, Rotorua and Hamilton airports are working collaboratively in this space. |
Transport |
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KiwiRail |
KiwiRail has conducted a Resilience Risk Assessment as part of their Resilience Programme Business Case which has identified climate risks, but not at the level of a detailed sector specific climate risk assessment. KiwiRail is also currently working on a Climate Resilience Strategy to form the basis of an action plan for the next three years responding to climate risks. |
Transport |
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Zespri |
Zespri has produced a ‘Risks and Opportunities’ report (aligned to the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures framework), which includes a sector-specific climate risk assessment for Zespri’s New Zealand and global supply. A Bay of Plenty climate change impact summary has been prepared as part of Zespri’s adaptation plan to prompt grower consideration of the risks in the region. |
Horticulture |
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Farming organisations |
· Te Arawa Pastoral Sector is looking to develop an adaptation plan in 2023. · Pukekauri Farms proactively developed their farm environment plan to support both emissions reduction and building resilience through protecting the health of soils, freshwater and biodiversity. |
Agriculture |
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Aquaculture NZ |
Aquaculture NZ will be initiating discussion around climate risks and adaptation at their July members meeting. |
Fisheries |
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DOC |
DOC has developed an Adaptation Plan at the national level: · NZCA Climate change policy (doc.govt.nz) · Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan (doc.govt.nz) More recently, a specific Climate Team has been established centrally, with Climate Leads appointed at the regional level. The initial priority focus for this team will be emissions reduction but it will also be involved in adaptation actions. |
Ecosystems (terrestrial, coastal & marine, freshwater), archaeological sites |
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Forest & Bird |
· Eastern Bay of Plenty branch is helping build coastal resilience in the Whakatāne estuary with native replanting and pest control. The branch is also building native forest resilience through weed control at multiple sites and by running a native plant nursery. · Rotorua branch is building resilience with pest control and native forest planting. · Tauranga branch is building resilience by protecting and restoring hill country forest and by educating the public. · Te Puke branch is building resilience by providing native seedlings for planting. · At a national level, Forest & Bird is advocating for the Government and councils to take a nature-based approach to flood mitigation through their ‘Making Room for the Rivers’ campaign. |
Ecosystems (terrestrial, coastal & marine, freshwater) |
4. Next steps
The Technical Working Group will continue to meet regularly to share learnings, leverage collective knowledge and maintain an overview of the work being undertaken across the region. Specific areas of focus include:
· collaboration on responses to common risks;
· the development of joint approaches e.g. a common approach to local risk and vulnerability assessments.
The Working Group seeks the support of the Mayoral Forum for this ongoing work and their acknowledgement of the collaborative value of this Group; developing joint approaches, ensuring efficiencies and avoiding duplication, and building relationships and capability across all Group members.
An update on progress can be provided to the next Mayoral Forum meeting on 17 November.
Appendix 1
Table 2 Territorial Authority responses
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Council |
Work completed, underway & planned |
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Tauranga City |
Council infrastructure: Under the Infrastructure Resilience Programme, the natural hazards that impact the city’s transport and water assets have been mapped and assessed. Project prioritisation within the Infrastructure Resilience Programme is an ongoing task, with several updates to natural hazards data underway for 2023, including a new groundwater model and landslide study for the city. Looking forward, a high priority for the 2024-34 LTP is to ensure the resilience of bridges in the city and wastewater and water projects. A key proposed activity under the draft Tauranga City Climate Action and Investment Plan (actions L9 and PC4, v4), expected to be adopted in August 2023, is to expand the Resilience Programme to include other infrastructure and enable better risk-informed decision-making by addressing gaps and updating hazard modelling. Local risk & vulnerability assessments: TCC has already built a substantial knowledge base around natural hazards in Tauranga, with the information included on Land Information Management (LIM) reports and used in council consenting processes. Going forward, Tauranga City’s draft Climate Action and Investment Plan includes an action (action G11/PC1, v4) to develop a localised climate change risk and vulnerability assessment that would build on the regional climate change risk assessment. If successfully adopted, the action is proposed to commence immediately in 2023/2024. Community adaptation planning: The draft Climate Action and Investment Plan v4 includes proposed actions with a specific emphasis on community adaptation planning: · Action L5: High level community awareness programme. · Action PC9: Support community and iwi-led adaptation planning through funding and access to hazard/exposure information.
In 2023/2024, TCC will initiate a pilot project in the Mount North area to develop and test a Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Planning (DAPP) framework that identifies, evaluates and prioritises different pathways to mitigate flooding risks for the community.
There is also one Tauranga/Western Bay of Plenty project supported through the BOPRC community led adaptation funding with Ngāti Ranginui (underway). |
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Rotorua Lakes |
Council infrastructure: RLC has a range of projects completed and/or underway that are focused on building up the resilience of water supply, wastewater, stormwater management, landfill and roading. Local risk & vulnerability assessments: Looking to undertake a risk assessment to the wellbeing of the lakes communities and a possible adaptation feasibility study, led by a joint working party comprising RLC, BOPRC, TALT and relevant stakeholders. This will investigate various workstreams and possible interventions in the short, medium and long term with the objective of better managing risk associated with climate change forecasts, including potential lake control options, improved urban stormwater management, streams capacity and associated costs. Community adaptation planning: There are two projects supported through the BOPRC community led adaptation funding with Te Manatōpū Hau Kāinga o Ōhinemutu (underway) and Te Urunga o Kea: Te Arawa Climate Change Working Group (not yet commenced). |
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Western Bay of Plenty District |
Council infrastructure: WBOPDC is undertaking an exposure assessment of council infrastructure alongside a risk assessment of key stormwater network and coastal and marine assets. This will be followed by the development of a standard framework for considering the options available to mitigate and/or adapt to identified risks. Local risk & vulnerability assessments: Once the council infrastructure assessments are complete, WBOPDC will be working with community and sector groups to build an understanding of the outputs and to improve understanding of exposure versus risks. Council will also support further element or location specific assessments where required. Community adaptation planning: WBOPDC is looking to work with internal stakeholders and community leaders to build understanding of risk, consider options available to mitigate or adapt, and address barriers and concerns. There are also five projects supported through the BOPRC community led adaptation funding with the Maketu Climate Change Iwi Collective (complete), Ngai Tamawhariua (underway), Motuhoa Island Whanau Trust (underway), Ngāti Ranginui (underway) and Waihī Beach Surf Life Saving Club (underway). |
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Whakatāne District |
Council infrastructure: Current focus is on assessing the risks to the transport network from a range of natural hazards and to the Three Waters networks to pluvial and fluvial flooding. Local risk & vulnerability assessments: Work has been completed on mapping coastal erosion. Current focus is on mapping coastal inundation, landslide and flood risks which will inform plan changes to better manage these risks and also feed into a more comprehensive climate change risk assessment for the Whakatāne District. Community adaptation planning: Completion of the District Climate Change Risk Assessment will enable development of community-specific climate change adaptation plans. |
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Ōpōtiki District |
Council infrastructure: ODC is undertaking a process to assess which pieces of key infrastructure are most at risk to effects from natural hazards. Council also has a focus on understanding the vulnerability and resilience of the coastal transport routes. Local risk & vulnerability assessments: ODC is undertaking a process to create a high-level district climate change risk assessment to understand key risks, natural hazards and provide insights on the vulnerability of different parts of the district. Community adaptation planning: There is one project supported through the BOPRC community led adaptation funding with Te Upokorehe Iwi Resource Management Team and the village of Kutarere (underway). |
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Kawerau District |
Council infrastructure: Main focus is on the impacts of a high water table on council land, drinking water, wastewater and roading infrastructure. Water supply resilience and diversification is also being considered. Local risk & vulnerability assessments: Stormwater assessments for critical areas have been completed. High water table effects on private land and properties are being considered. |
Table 3 BOPRC responses
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Work underway |
CCRA Sector Category |
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· Regional coastal erosion mapping and regional landslide susceptibility mapping has been completed and will be incorporated into the BayHazards natural hazards viewer along with the recently completed regional coastal inundation layers and river flooding layers. This will aid coastal adaptation planning. · Requiring climate change resilient development through RMA and Spatial Planning processes (key mahi is driving change through Housing Intensification Plan Changes, Structure Plans for Ngongotahā, Ōmokoroa and Tauriko West and Spatial Planning for Eastern Region, SmartGrowth and Mount Maunganui to Arataki). This will help ensure that new development is climate resilient. · The community led adaptation funding initiative is supporting a number of communities across the region to take the first steps in their own adaptation planning. |
Settlements & communities |
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· The River Scheme Sustainability Project is taking a 100 year view to achieving a reduction in flood risk for the region in a way that incorporates climate change, affordability and community values. · Working with the Te Arawa Lakes Working Group and Rotorua Lakes Council to scope climate change effects on lake levels and lakeside communities. · Detainment bunds: facilitating building of bunds on private land to manage high intensity rainfall. |
Flood management |
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· Potential saltmarsh migration pathways have been mapped identifying potential areas for restoration/rehabilitation or reflooding of land to support movement of saltmarsh habitat with sea level rise. · Restoration and construction of wetlands under Environmental Programmes with landowners. · Focused work on high priority biodiversity sites e.g. through pest plant control, also builds resilience to climate change. In future, funding for biodiversity protection areas will need to increase to manage the impacts of climate change on these sites e.g. increased temperatures lead to an increase in pest species. · Focus catchment projects are scoping the potential for land reclamation and modification of flood defences in response to saltwater intrusion, sea level rise and loss of gravity drainage (e.g. Sargent Drive wetland). · Rotorua Lake Programme activities mitigate the impact of the increasing range and number of invasive species and higher trophic level indices resulting from warmer temperatures under climate change. · Council advocates for best practice drain management & riparian margins; e.g. through shading to help prevent eutrophication, and wider riparian margins to provide improved buffers to extreme weather. |
Ecosystems (terrestrial, coastal & marine, freshwater) |
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· Retirement of land through implementation of the Integrated Framework for Lake Rotorua, including Incentives Scheme, Plan Change 10 and wetland construction. · Retirement of steep and wet land under the Environmental Grants Policy. |
Agriculture |
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· New policies are being considered under NPSFM requiring permanent sediment controls for orchards to reduce run off, minimise contaminants and to help with flood management. · Looking to support better use of underutilised marginal land (plateaus and gullies) in orchards e.g. through conversion to native plantings or wetlands. |
Horticulture |
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· Potential implications of climate change are being considered in the Freshwater Policy Programme to implement the NPSFM, including consideration of implications for water quality and river low flows. · As part of the review of groundwater and surface water availability, BOPRC has been liaising with territorial authorities regarding the limit setting process around water takes which will need to consider more redundancy/resilience in the system due to a more variable climate. · New work has identified differences in the response of spring fed streams compared to gravel bed stream types due to climate change; this will help inform understanding of risks to essential takes and also enable consent applicants to understand the issues of reduced reliability. · Supporting the construction of treatment wetlands to improve water quality. |
Water availability and water quality |
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· Undertook a risk assessment of all known closed landfill sites, focused on landfills that could be opened up by riverbank erosion, as part of a nationwide survey initiated by Ministry for the Environment in 2019 (project currently on hold). |
Waste |
